Authority Trends Analysis

Analysis

· as of May 28, 2026

The most anomalous feature of this dataset is not the well-documented post-2022 contraction in new authority grants, but the near-total disappearance of revocation records in the most recent months. March 2026 shows only 1 total revocation across all authority types, and April and May 2026 show zero, compared to monthly revocation totals that consistently ranged from 5,500 to 8,000 throughout 2023 and 2024. This pattern is consistent with a data processing lag rather than an actual regulatory pause, and any net-change figures for those months should be treated as incomplete. Setting aside those months, the underlying trend is a sustained contraction in carrier formation that has persisted for roughly three years. Total grants in the trailing 12 months came to 58,655, down about 2.0% from 59,847 in the prior 12-month period, a modest year-over-year decline that understates the cumulative drop from the 2021 peak. Monthly common authority grants, which drove the 2020-2021 surge, averaged roughly 8,700 per month in mid-2021 and had fallen to approximately 4,100 to 5,200 per month through most of 2024 and 2025. January 2026 recorded only 2,517 common grants, the lowest single-month common-authority figure in the 60-month series, before partially rebounding to 5,185 in March 2026. The composition of grants has shifted only modestly: common authority has consistently represented around 88 to 91% of monthly totals throughout the period, with broker authority running 6 to 8% and contract authority under 4%. Contract authority has posted negative net changes in every single month of this dataset, meaning revocations have persistently outpaced new grants in that category regardless of broader market conditions. The sustained decline in new grants likely reflects the normalization following the freight boom of 2020 and 2021, when unusually high spot rates attracted a wave of new entrants, many of whom have since exited. Over the full 60-month window, the market produced a cumulative net gain of approximately 39,280 active authorities, but that figure is heavily front-loaded to 2021.