Authority Trends Analysis

Analysis

· as of June 15, 2026

The most anomalous feature in this dataset is not the multi-year contraction in net authority additions but the near-complete collapse of recorded revocations in March and April 2026, when total revocations fell to 1 and 0 respectively, against a monthly average above 6,000 for the preceding two years. May 2026 similarly shows zero revocations. These figures almost certainly reflect a reporting or processing lag in FMCSA records rather than an actual halt in enforcement activity, and any trend analysis covering those months should be treated with caution until the data is restated.

Setting aside those incomplete months, the underlying pattern is a sustained contraction in carrier entry. Total monthly grants peaked around 10,333 in March 2022 and had declined to 4,088 by January 2026, a drop of roughly 60% over four years. Net authority additions turned negative in December 2022 and have posted a negative result in the large majority of months since, with the worst single month being January 2024 at negative 3,747. The trailing 12-month grant total of 59,676 is nearly unchanged from the prior 12-month period at 59,838, a year-over-year change of negative 0.3%, suggesting the rate of decline in new entries has flattened even as revocations remain elevated.

The composition of that activity differs by authority type. Common authority dominates volume, accounting for roughly 91% of trailing 12-month grants at 54,181, but it also absorbs the bulk of revocations. Contract authority is the weakest segment: grants have hovered between roughly 60 and 200 per month throughout the period and have not produced a positive net month since July 2021. Broker authority showed more resilience through mid-2022 but turned consistently negative through 2023 and 2024 before showing tentative stabilization in late 2025 and early 2026.

This pattern is consistent with a post-pandemic normalization in carrier formation following the outsized entry surge of 2020 and 2021, combined with a prolonged freight rate downcycle that likely reduced the economic incentive for new entrants and accelerated exit among marginal operators. Over the full 59 months covered, cumulative net additions total 33,909, a modest figure relative to the roughly 360,000 gross grants recorded in the same window.