Authority Trends Analysis

Analysis

· as of September 1, 2026

The most conspicuous feature of the dataset is not the multi-year decline in authority grants but the near-complete collapse of recorded revocations beginning in March 2026. From September 2021 through February 2026, monthly revocations ranged from roughly 800 to nearly 8,500; starting in March 2026, total revocations fell to 1, then to zero for each subsequent month through August 2026. This pattern is almost certainly a data processing artifact or administrative lag rather than a genuine regulatory development, and any interpretation of net change figures for that period should be treated with caution until the underlying records are confirmed. Setting aside those anomalous months, the broader trend is a sustained contraction in new authority activity. Monthly total grants peaked near 10,349 in March 2022 and had fallen to 4,091 by December 2024, with the trailing 12-month total of 48,358 running 21.6% below the prior 12-month total of 61,661. The contraction is sharpest in contract authority: contract grants, which averaged roughly 240 per month in late 2021, were running at 131 to 169 per month through most of 2025, and contract net change was negative in every single month across the full 60-month window. Broker authority followed a similar downward trajectory, with broker grants declining from a monthly range of 600 to 795 in early 2022 to a range of 215 to 420 through most of 2025 and into 2026. Common authority, by contrast, has held a larger share of the remaining grant volume, accounting for approximately 90% of trailing-12-month grants. The sustained decline in new entrants and the persistent negative net on contract authority is consistent with a freight market working through excess carrier capacity added during the 2020 to 2022 demand surge, though the data alone cannot establish that cause. Viewed across the full five-year window, cumulative net authority growth of 25,271 reflects a market that added capacity rapidly through mid-2022 and has been drawing it down since.