Annual Fuel Gallons Estimates Now Available for Every Carrier

What's new

Every carrier record now includes:

• Estimated annual gallons: projected diesel consumption for the carrier's tractor fleet over a full year

• Estimated monthly gallons: annual divided by 12, useful for ARR and TAM math

• Confidence tier: high, medium, low, or unreliable, so you know which numbers to trust

• Operating segment: LTL, drayage, equipment rental, household goods, waste hauler, construction, passenger bus, and more

These fields are queryable through our REST API, the Python and TypeScript SDKs, the CLI, and the MCP server. They're also available as filters and sort orders in the AlphaLoops Workspace.

Why this matters

Carrier prospect lists usually rank by power units or revenue proxy. Both miss something fundamental: a 200-truck flatbed carrier running OTR consumes very differently from a 200-truck waste hauler running local routes. Fleet size alone tells you nothing about fuel volume.

For fuel-related products, this means top-of-list carriers often aren't your best prospects. A regional concrete fleet with 500 trucks may consume less fuel than a 100-truck reefer fleet running coast to coast.

Gallons estimates change the ranking. For the first time, you can sort your TAM by what actually drives the buying decision.

How we built it

The estimates combine FMCSA inspection data, our enriched VIN database covering vehicle class and model year, and segment-aware utilization models calibrated against publicly reported fuel consumption from carriers like Old Dominion, JB Hunt, UPS, Schneider, and Werner.

The model works at the VIN level. Every truck in our database gets its own annual mileage and MPG estimate based on vehicle class, cab type (sleeper vs day cab), inspection geographic spread, and inspection frequency. We then aggregate to the carrier level and apply segment-specific adjustments to reflect operating reality. A school bus operator and a long-haul truckload carrier both running Class 8 vehicles consume fuel very differently, and the model knows the difference.

We validate against known benchmarks across 40 carriers spanning every major segment. Median error is under 20% for carriers in the high confidence tier, which is more than enough resolution for prospect prioritization.

Confidence tiers

Not every carrier has enough inspection coverage to estimate accurately. We're explicit about this:

• High confidence: strong inspection coverage, fleet declarations match observed VINs, recent MCS-150 update

• Medium confidence: usable but with one or more soft warning signs

• Low confidence: small inspection sample or significant fleet/VIN mismatch

• Unreliable: insufficient data, so we don't return an estimate

Filter and sort by confidence to focus on carriers where the numbers are reliable enough to act on.

Available now

Gallons estimates are available immediately for all customers across every product surface. No upgrade required. If you're new to AlphaLoops, book a demo or start a trial.

If you want to ask questions about specific carriers or segments, our MCP server (runalphaloops.com/mcp) gives Claude, ChatGPT, and other AI assistants direct access to gallons data and reasoning.