Crash & Safety Trends Analysis
Snapshot from April 17, 2026. This analysis reflects FMCSA data available on that date and is preserved for citation.
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Analysis
· as of April 17, 2026Highlights
- Total commercial vehicle crashes fell 10.7% year-over-year in the trailing 12 months, from 185,154 to 165,252.
- June and July 2025 recorded the two highest monthly crash totals in the dataset, at 20,061 and 19,688 respectively.
- Fatalities in the trailing 12 months reached 4,926, with hazmat-involved crashes totaling 2,664 over the same period.
- December 2021 through February 2022 saw monthly crash counts nearly 50% above mid-2021 levels, peaking at 18,035 in December 2022.
- February 2026 reported only 575 total crashes and 9 fatalities, indicating partial-month or incomplete data for that record.
The most counterintuitive pattern in this dataset is the pairing of a sharp year-over-year decline in total crashes with an anomalous spike in mid-2025. Total crashes in the trailing 12 months were 165,252, down 10.7% from 185,154 in the prior 12-month period, suggesting a broad easing of crash frequency. Yet June 2025 produced the single highest monthly crash count in the entire 60-month series at 20,061, followed immediately by July 2025 at 19,688, a two-month concentration that stands apart from any comparable period in the data. For context, the prior peak months, December 2022 at 18,035 and January 2022 at 17,330, were part of a sustained elevated plateau across late 2021 through 2022, not an isolated two-month cluster.
The composition of the mid-2025 spike adds texture. June 2025 recorded 561 fatal crashes and 7,893 injury crashes, compared to 416 fatal crashes and 5,351 injury crashes in June 2024, representing year-over-year increases of roughly 35% and 48% respectively in those severity categories for that month alone. That divergence between a declining annual trend and a sharp intra-year spike is consistent with a concentrated period of elevated road risk, possibly related to freight volume seasonality, weather, or infrastructure conditions, though the data does not establish causation.
The data for 2026 requires caution. January 2026 shows 8,374 total crashes and February 2026 shows only 575, with 9 fatalities. These figures are almost certainly artifacts of incomplete reporting rather than genuine crash reductions, and should not be interpreted as trend data. Analysts using trailing 12-month figures should be aware that recent months likely undercount true crash activity due to reporting lags inherent in FMCSA data.
Over the full five-year window captured here, the dataset records 864,944 total crashes and 28,382 fatalities. Monthly crash volumes in 2022 and 2023 ran roughly 40% to 60% above the earliest months in the series from mid-2021, a shift that likely reflects both increased truck registrations and improved reporting completeness rather than any single operational cause. The partial recovery toward lower counts in late 2024 and early 2025, before the mid-2025 spike, suggests the longer-term trend was moderating before that anomaly emerged.
Key Statistics
Cite this data
AlphaLoops. (2026). Crash & Safety Trends — FMCSA Data Hub. Retrieved 2026-04-17 from https://runalphaloops.com/data/safety.