Crash & Safety Trends Analysis
Snapshot from May 28, 2026. This analysis reflects FMCSA data available on that date and is preserved for citation.
This data is free to access. If you use it for research or media, we kindly ask that you cite AlphaLoops and link back to runalphaloops.com/data.
Analysis
· as of May 28, 2026Highlights
- Total commercial vehicle crashes fell 10.7% year-over-year in the trailing 12 months, from 185,154 to 165,252.
- June and July 2025 recorded the two highest monthly crash totals in the dataset, at 20,061 and 19,688 respectively.
- Fatalities in the trailing 12 months reached 4,926, compared to a five-year dataset total of 28,006 across roughly 60 months.
- Hazmat-involved crashes in the trailing 12 months totaled 2,664, with monthly counts ranging from 196 to 319 over the past year.
- Tow-away incidents accounted for 153,289 of 165,252 total crashes in the trailing 12 months, representing approximately 92.8% of reported crashes.
The most counterintuitive pattern in this dataset is the simultaneous appearance of the highest monthly crash volumes on record and a meaningful year-over-year decline in total crashes. June and July 2025 posted 20,061 and 19,688 total crashes respectively, the two largest monthly figures in the entire 60-month series, yet the trailing 12-month total of 165,252 crashes is 10.7% below the prior 12-month total of 185,154. That divergence suggests the elevated mid-2025 figures were concentrated rather than sustained, with subsequent months pulling the annual aggregate downward. August through December 2025 ranged between 13,144 and 15,144 monthly crashes, well below the 2022 baseline of roughly 15,000 to 18,000 per month, which is consistent with either reduced freight volumes, changed reporting patterns, or both.
The fatality series shows a different composition than the crash count series. March 2022 recorded 665 fatalities alongside 16,674 total crashes, for a fatality rate of roughly 3.99 per 100 crashes. October 2023 also recorded 665 fatalities, but against 17,311 crashes, yielding a lower rate of approximately 3.84 per 100. By contrast, the most recent complete months in late 2025 show fatality counts declining faster than crash counts: December 2025 logged 353 fatalities on 14,675 crashes, a rate of approximately 2.41 per 100, compared to December 2022's 594 fatalities on 18,035 crashes. Whether this reflects changes in crash severity, infrastructure, vehicle mix, or reporting scope cannot be determined from this data alone, but the directional divergence between total crashes and fatalities per crash is the clearest structural shift in the series.
The January and February 2026 figures warrant explicit caution. January 2026 shows 8,374 crashes and February 2026 shows only 575, against monthly averages of roughly 15,000 to 17,000 throughout 2022 through 2024. These figures almost certainly reflect incomplete data ingestion for the most recent months rather than an actual drop in crashes, a pattern common in FMCSA reporting due to submission and processing lags. Analysts using these figures for trend analysis should treat the most recent two months as provisional. Across the full five-year window, the dataset records 854,457 total crashes and 28,006 fatalities, establishing a baseline fatality rate of approximately 3.27 per 100 crashes over the period.
Key Statistics
Cite this data
AlphaLoops. (2026). Crash & Safety Trends — FMCSA Data Hub. Retrieved 2026-02-01 from https://runalphaloops.com/data/safety.