Crash & Safety Trends Analysis

Analysis

· as of June 1, 2026

The most arresting feature of this dataset is not the year-over-year decline in reported crashes but the sharp discontinuity at the trailing edge: February 2026 shows only 575 total crashes and 9 fatalities, compared to 14,785 crashes and 416 fatalities in February 2025. January 2026 is similarly suppressed at 8,374 crashes versus 16,422 in January 2025. These figures almost certainly reflect reporting lag rather than an actual collapse in incident volume; FMCSA crash data is subject to multi-month submission and processing delays, and partial-month records routinely appear undercounted before they are reconciled. Any trend analysis that includes 2026 data should treat those months as provisional.

Setting aside the incomplete months, the directional story through 2025 is a measured retreat from the elevated levels of 2022. Monthly crash counts in 2022 averaged roughly 16,600, anchored by a December 2022 peak of 18,035. By contrast, the months of late 2025 for which data appears more complete, October through December, averaged approximately 14,321 crashes per month, a materially lower baseline. Fatalities follow a similar arc: March 2022 and October 2023 both recorded 665 fatalities, while December 2025 came in at 353 and November 2025 at 372, the two lowest monthly fatality counts outside the clearly truncated 2026 figures.

The divergence between total crashes and tow-away counts is worth noting. Tow-away incidents have consistently tracked at roughly 92 to 95 percent of total crashes throughout the period, indicating that the share of crashes severe enough to require towing has held stable even as absolute volumes shifted. Hazmat-involved crashes, meanwhile, peaked at 336 in December 2022 and have oscillated without a clear directional trend, ranging from 196 to 319 in the months of 2025 with complete-looking data.

The 2022 volume surge is consistent with a period of elevated freight demand and fleet expansion following the supply chain disruptions of 2020 and 2021, though the data alone cannot establish causation. The subsequent moderation through 2024 and into 2025 may reflect softer freight conditions, regulatory compliance cycles, or changes in reporting practices. Across the full five-year window, the dataset records 854,457 crashes and 440,786 injuries, underscoring that even in lower-volume months the absolute toll on people and equipment remains substantial.